Uncertainty is here to stay

Uncertainty here to stay blog post header image

Another turbulent year is ending, marked by economic, geopolitical, and technological shifts. With six decades behind me, I embrace this uncertainty as the norm. What does this mean for corporate decisions, especially in Pharma? I, [Ulrike Meier] with my colleague Eugenie Joanny, discussed the implications of a world of moving variables for the Deallus Pharma clients.

Uncertainty is inherent to most businesses, particularly in Pharma, where bench-to-bedside timelines can span a decade, and current decisions shape long-term success. Intensified uncertainty challenges our clients’ risk management and decision-making in a world where unpredictability and agility are the new normal.

We find three approaches instrumental in building robust assumptions for proactive, dynamic, and future-fit scenario planning:

1. Making Sense of the Best Data:

As consultants, we forge evidence-based hypotheses and articulate implications and recommendations for various scenarios. With data flowing faster and more accessible than ever, cutting through the noise to inform sound analysis is crucial. Primary research, such as speaking to key opinion leaders and experts, tests the credibility of information and challenges assumptions. AI advancements reshape how we gather and structure information but don’t replace the human brain. It doesn’t formulate the right implications, let alone client-specific recommendations. AI allows for more impactful work in less time, however, for example creating rapid landscapes as does the Deallus Landscape Analyzer thereby unlocking creativity and innovation, as @Kunal Srivastava, Tech and AI Lead at Deallus, notes. Deciding on the ‘jumping’ decision point amidst information overflow and endless assumptions is where human insight is crucial. Integrating information flows, connecting complex possibilities, and delineating powerful assumptions help clients distinguish no-regret moves from measured or big bets, which is Deallus’ core mission.

2. Improving the Inside View:

A year like 2024 is an opportunity to reassess corporate readiness for uncertainty. How can Pharma executives incorporate flexibility and optionality into strategic choices? How can they build better assumptions? What skills are needed to move from a sequenced model to a continuous “living plan”? Leveraging external consultant perspectives helps avoid a purely inward approach. In uncertain times, the mantra of “plan, then do” is outdated. New tools and processes must be introduced, trained, and adapted. For example, establishing a dynamic scenario planning framework for a client’s inline growth driver and with a five-year horizon, identified detailed ‘what if’ scenarios along with actionable contingency plans, and improved the brand team’s agility to anticipate and react to market events.

3. Avoiding Biased Decisions:

Instilling the right management and governance culture is crucial. Overconfidence or false consensus can lead to overoptimism. Testing strategies under various scenarios and down-tuning positive assumptions by 20-25% is critical in the pharma environment as it helps challenge groupthink and internal bias. Workshops with the right client stakeholders test assumptions, limit subjectivity, and strengthen action plans. Avoiding the herding instinct can help gain or retain a competitive advantage we have noted. It may feel lonely to break from the trend, but relying on data and ensuring objective voices support evidence-based decision-making is essential. Risk tolerance and delegating decision-making across organizational levels foster agility and resilience, fundamental to navigating complex realities.

Living in this dichotomy of uncertainty being a choice of good vs. bad might also reduce our cognitive burden as we are naturally wired to make quick judgements. When we are stuck in the dichotomy, however, we shield ourselves from learning. So while uncertainty is here to stay we are looking forward to 2025 and its opportunities to learn and continue to help clients adjust their sails, whatever the weather.

Authors – Ulrike Meier and Eugenie Joanny

December 2024